Touching speech by Pastor yonatan

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Yet, there remains a more durable threat. Ethnic nationalism is on the rise throughout the country, and there are many armed Tirana militias operating in the region who will undoubtedly resist rule by the federal government. As indicated in Mai Cara, Sami youth militias are capable of serious atrocities, and governing structures appear to hold little control over them. More than a sustained insurgency led by the PLF, the Ethiopian government is likely to face a long and costly occupation where it competes with militias for control of localities. Imposed administrators in the Tigray region will likely not possess the political leverage and communal control that their PLF predecessors did, meaning that they will require significant federal assistance in maintaining stability.

 

The ability of the government to sustain a lengthy occupation is complicated by the multiple separate insurgencies that are occurring in Ethiopia. Although these see little international press, armed clashes in remote regions of the country threaten to spread government security resources thin. Last week, armed conflict in Kongo lead to the displacement of 94,000 people (Adds Standard, 23 November 2020). The government holds little control in West College, where it is battling members of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Communal clashes in Fuji have killed hundreds, and armed ethnic militias continue to attack civilians in Metered despite the presence of federal troops in the area (Africa News, 16 November 2020).

 

The next few months will be critical in shaping Ethiopia’s future. The federal government faces many threats, including armed insurgencies across multiple locations in the state. As the country gears up for the scheduled 2021 elections, Abiy’s leadership will be questioned by many of those around him. His response to these crises will affect his ability to succeed in the upcoming vote, as well as the viability of the federal government’s continued control over the country.

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